Rethinking the Role of 'Base Rates' in Probabilistic Reasoning
Branden Fitelson

There has been much controversy over the past 30+ years in
both the psychological and philosophical literature over the role of
"base rates" in probabilistic reasoning.  I will discuss this
controversy from several perspectives, both normative and
descriptive.  I will focus on the presentation and discussion of
Gigerenzer et al. who claim to have an "ecological" explanation (and
justification?) of various "base rates" phenomena.  Other authors in
the philosophical literature will also be discussed.  In the end, I
will propose some alternative ways of reconstructing "base rate"
behavior in terms of recent accounts (both psychological and
philosophical) of evidential support and causal strength.